Cautionary Tales

Demographic Studies Aren't Iron Clad - Warwick is Ripe for Growth Once Economy Improves!

The California School Board Association has faced budgetary shortfalls that prompted calls to close schools in many districts.  From their publication, School Board News Today, I gleaned the following quotes that support the notion that it is unwise to consider demographic studies as definitive or iron-clad in their findings.  Here’s the relevant quote:

He [San Jose Unified Superintendent Don Iglesias] also recommended that LEAs resist the temptation to raise some quick money by selling facilities. Predicting demographics and future student enrollment is an imprecise science; there’s no telling when changes in birth rates and housing patterns may transform a declining enrollment district into one that needs to open new schools.

Hans Johnson, education analyst and demographer at the Public Policy Institute of California, says districts need to keep their options open. “A district does not want to be in a position of closing a school and having to turn around a few years later and open a new one because there’s been an unexpected boom in school-age population,” he says.

To read the entire article, click this link.

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